The U.S. distress ratio has dropped to its lowest level since September 2014, tightening to 6.5% in January, from 7.4%, amid strengthening commodity prices, according to S&P Global Fixed Income Research.
“The oil and gas sector continued to improve throughout 2017 as hydrocarbon prices recovered and stabilized,” noted Diane Vazza, head of the S&P Global Fixed Income Research group, in a Feb. 1 report titled “Distressed Debt Monitor: Strengthening Commodities Sectors Compress The Distress Ratio To Its Lowest Level Since 2014.”
“Accordingly, since their highs in February 2016, the distress ratios for the oil and gas and metals, mining and steel sectors have steadily decreased,” Vazza said.
Moreover, the oil and gas sector accounted for the highest month-over-month decrease in the number of distressed credits, moving to 15, from 23. As such, the oil and gas sector’s distress ratio decreased to 7.9% as of Jan. 15, from 88.5% as of Feb. 16, 2016.
The outlook for the oil and gas sector in 2018 is generally stable, reflecting a continued flattening of oil and natural gas pricing, but performance will depend heavily on potential OPEC production cuts and price volatility, S&P Global says.
The distress ratio for the metals, mining and steel sector decreased to 5.6%, from 82.3% over the same roughly two-year period referenced above.
Distressed credits are speculative-grade (rated BB+ and lower) issues with option-adjusted composite spreads of more than 1,000 basis points relative to U.S. Treasuries. The distress ratio (defined as the number of distressed credits divided by the total number of speculative-grade issues) indicates the level of risk the market has priced into bonds.
As of Jan. 15, the retail and restaurants sector had the highest distress ratio at 17%, followed by the telecommunications sector at 15.9%. — Rachelle Kakouris
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